Exploring the Repetition of Events through Random Decisions in Wargames

Abstract

Wargames are a key discipline in decision-making, characterized by uncertainty, the interdependence of decisions, and imperfect information. Unlike games such as chess, where information is perfect, wargames involve scenarios where participants must manage limited and temporal information to make decisions under uncertainty. The use of scientific methods such as Monte Carlo simulations and the analysis of historical databases helps optimize decisions, reduce risks, and improve predictability through simulation and the analysis of previous data. Wargamers can explore different courses of action, identify patterns, and adapt accordingly their strategies and tactics, based on changing scenarios. The article explores how these analytical methods applied in wargames and their similarity with chess can improve decision-making quality and increase the chances of success.