Prospective as a tool for the analysis of the 21st Century Geopolitics: Considerations for a National Security and Defense Doctrine

Abstract

The international system of the 21st century will be marked by megatrends that will impact State’s interests, producing conflicts between them in all areas. Regarding Peru, the megatrends related to the scarcity of natural resources, accelerated innovation and technological development, and the dispersion of global power will be especially relevant. This article carries out a prospective analysis of current geopolitics to present considerations that Peru must have for latent threats and those that may arise in the following decades as this century’s international system evolves. Given the possible impact that could exist on Peru’s security and defense, and given the need to be able to defend its interests in said context, this article presents the need to create a Security and Defense Doctrine that incorporates a prospective analysis of the elements that will define the future, based on a unified vision of defense and foreign policy as an element that compulsorily guides the actions of the entire Peruvian State on the external front.